Friday, August 26, 2011

In Bernanke We Trust? Ben Bernanke to give high profile speech in Jackson Hole

The head of the US central bank, Ben Bernanke, is preparing to give a key speech that will be closely watched by markets for any hint of new stimulus.  

He will speak at a meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Last year, his speech paved the way for $600bn (£368bn) of quantitative easing - injecting cash into the financial system to try to boost the economy.

This year, with the US again slowing sharply, markets are speculating that further QE may be round the corner.


Market anticipation
 
Shares have rallied all week in anticipation that the Federal Reserve will act to reinvigorate the US recovery. Earlier this month, stock markets plummeted as economic data pointed to sluggish or virtually non-existent growth in the US and Europe.

"Recent events have made it blatantly clear that the economy is in a funk," says Paul Dales, senior US economist at Capital Economics.

"The housing market remains at rock bottom and even the manufacturing sector, which had been the shining light of this recovery, has come off the boil."

Gold also hit a new record high on Tuesday, before falling back as stocks rallied.
Investors see gold as a haven in times of economic uncertainty, and QE is expected to depress the value of the dollar versus gold, which also makes the precious metal more attractive.


Limited options
Mr Bernanke is not expected to make any major announcements in his speech.
But last year, unable to cut short-term interest rates any further, Mr Bernanke used his speech to lay out the Fed's alternative policy options.

Markets - correctly - took this as a signal that a second round of QE was imminent.
This year, Mr Bernanke's policy options to try to try to boost growth are seen as more limited.

Most, including QE, work primarily by lowering longer-term cost of borrowing. But government borrowing costs are already at post-World War II lows, leaving little room to fall further. Earlier this month, the Fed tried another ploy - announcing that it expected to hold short-term rates at zero until 2013. 

But it had little effect, as two-year interest rates were already close to zero.


KEEPING OPTIONS OPEN

Wyoming may conjure up images of the American Wild West, but markets aren't expecting Bernanke to ride into the mountain resort with guns blazing -- at least not yet.

While the economy has taken a turn for the worse -- growth ground to a halt in the second quarter and nearly flat-lined in the first -- there's a sense that the Fed will want to wait a bit longer to assess the impact of its past stimulus.

Other Fed policymakers have sought to downplay expectations of an imminent QE3 announcement. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard was quoted in Japan's Nikkei newspaper saying that while the Fed could buy more bonds if the economy weakened, the time was not right for such a move.

"Going into Bernanke's speech at Jackson Hole, people are positioned for a significant shift in policy. (But) we think financial market conditions have to deteriorate even further for more QE3," said Simon Derrick, head of currency research at Bank of New York Mellon.

Nonetheless, traders are still expecting Bernanke to signal in some shape or form that he hasn't run out of bullets and could start shooting again if need be.

"Based on our conversations with clients, we believe investors would be very surprised if the speech did not include a discussion of asset purchases," strategists at Goldman Sachs wrote in a note to clients.

They said this could involve the Fed reinvesting proceeds from maturing assets into 10- and 30-year Treasuries to hold long-term interest rates low.

"I think we'll see (QE3) because America needs growth, but I don't think we'll necessarily get it on Friday," said Neil Dwane, chief investment officer for Europe at RCM.

Current market moves reflect this. While still down about 15 percent from late July, the S&P 500 rallied smartly Tuesday and the dollar has struggled against major currencies.

More stock market gains could be in store if Bernanke gives a strong hint of future action. After Bernanke's speech last August, the S&P 500 began a rally that took it up nearly 25 percent by May 2011.


LAUNCHING QE3 NOW

Pulling the trigger now would have the element of surprise going for it and might spark the most aggressive market moves.

There's been some talk in bond market circles that the 10-year yield's dip below 2 percent reflected a pricing in of QE3, though those moves probably had more to do with recent dismal jobs, manufacturing and growth data.

Still, there are impediments to launching QE3. For one thing, Bernanke already caught investors off guard earlier this month and slowed a market rout when the Fed pledged to keep interest rates near zero until at least 2013.

Steven Bell, director of GLC Ltd, a global macro hedge fund in London with $1 billion in assets, also noted that higher inflation may make the Fed cautious. "We have core inflation going up," he said. "It may be low but it's still going up."

Political opposition is also on the rise. Texas Governor Rick Perry, a candidate for president, even said he would consider it "treasonous" if Bernanke "prints more money between now and the election" in 2012.

That populist anger stems partly from the fact that Fed policies have done little to increase hiring or spark a housing market recovery.

"The history is $600 billion (in bond purchases) hasn't really made any difference to the U.S. economy," Dwane said. "It's still where it was when he was talking about it last August: nearly in recession."

If QE3 fails to boost growth or stokes inflation, markets may wish the Fed had done nothing.

"Investors are becoming more cynical," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago. "Central bankers and governments seem to playing the role of the Dutch boy trying to plug holes in the dike."


MUM'S THE WORD

A humdrum speech that neither announces plans for QE3 or even hints at the Fed's willingness to act is probably the most unlikely scenario, as far as markets are concerned.

If Bernanke did go that way, it could signal that the hawks were gaining the upper hand. Three Fed policymakers voted against extending the zero interest rate pledge to 2013 and have argued that the Fed cannot do much more to boost growth.

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